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Jan
28, 2011
1. Bonds.
Bonds. Bonds. I scanned a huge number of writings
from gold analysts+ yesterday. Unfortunately, there
seems to be a mass "everyone put your head in the sand
now" approach to what is going on in gold. There
seems to be almost a CONTEST to see how many analysts can talk
about GOLD and NOT mention bonds. All
hands have reported to the rose coloured glasses deck upon
bankster command.
2. Theories
range from "banks are bombing the market" (wrong,
banks are buying and
if they weren't price would likely be down $300 from $1430, not
just the tiny $115 that it is). Banks are buying,
yes. Are YOU buying?
3. I
am. My lowest fill is about $1314. My
view is that most of those blabbing about how this sell-off is
not serious are LIARS. They are LIQUIDATING their
personal holdings while LYING about it.
4. Others
are acting like gold is NOT falling. Others promise
it goes to the moon 20 seconds from now. One thing
they almost all have in common is:
5. blissful
ignorance of what the institutional money managers are doing
and blissful ignorance of the real factors causing those
institutional money flows.
6. Hiding
from reality isn't going to make you any profits in any
currency or asset. Nor are DEMANDS that gold rises
immediately because of your personal positions being underwater
against paper money. Nothing is right or wrong in the
market. Everything just IS. Will you make
a profit screaming that you were promised higher paper dollar
currency measurements for your ounces of wealth money?
7. Rallies
in gold are going to be sold by institutions. The fact is
that the fund
managers who are trend followers see the general US stock
market as RELATIVELY the best buy of any asset class, even
now. Here's why:
8. By
almost every relative valuation
metric, stocks are near RECORD LOWS against BONDS. Against
commodities (and I've showed you the Dow to Gold chart that
99.9999% of the gold community somehow thinks MUST bottom at a
1-1 ratio...WRONG). That chart shows a
breakout upside, of the Dow against GOLD.
9. Against
the DOLLAR there is no question the
Dow has run higher and is
overbought in the SHORT TERM. Don't
assume the DOLLAR is going to outperform the DOW in the long
term.
10. Many
of you have written in and are now using some of the inverse
charts I've shown you, as you get a new understanding of the
dollar as an asset and currency, and gold as an asset,
currency, and money.
11. When
you talk about shorting the DOW, what you are actually saying
is that the 30 MIGHTIEST companies in AMERICA are going to LOSE
in a FIGHT with...are you ready for it? OK, here we
go, one more time just to be sure you really are ready:
12. When
you talk about shorting the DOW, what you are saying is that
the 30 MIGHTIEST companies in AMERICA are going to LOSE in a
FIGHT with aPHOTOCOPY
MACHINE. THAT
thought.. is....MADNESS.
13. Shorting
the Dow is... Buying the dollar. We all know that
Elmer Fudd Public Investor is looking
RIGHT NOW for the first time since he booked massive losses on
his stock market positions in 2008-2009 at...booking
another massive set of losses,
this time on his
paper money against the DOW. When
this idiot comes out of paper money and into the Dow, now, what
he is doing is booking losses on his paper money. Like
I told you, all this idiot does is BOOK LOSSES. Then
he wonders why he's totally unhappy in the market. He's
unhappy by DEFINITION but he doesn't understand his situation
at all. Always think about
what you are doing with the SELL side of any trade you
make. All trades have a sell side to them. Are
you booking profit, or booking a LOSS?
14. By
the way, most stocks
actually bottomed in Oct 2008, but
the major averages took until March 2009. Gold
also bottomed in Oct 2008, and
you'll sometimes see me make a typo speaking of the stk mkt
lows of 2008. That's not really a typo. Stocks
in general really did bottom in Oct 2008, on the day when the
financial system almost closed. On the day Fudd
pretends never existed. That day is another skeleton
he has locked in his market closet, one that is overloaded with
so many skeletons the door threatens to blow off the hinges.
15. What
I want you to do, is stay focused on reality and
professionalism, not on golden pipedreams and I want you to
stay out of the panic enveloping Fudd in the gold market. I
keep urging all of you to exhibit PATIENCE. You
don't have to be an AGGRESSIVE buyer of the various PAIN ZONES
that manifest themselves from time to time in the major markets
but...
16. YOU
DO HAVE
TO BE A BUYER.
17. The
fact is that the gold holdings of the SPDR gold trust are at 8
month lows. (I just covered off the last of my
current crop of short positions yesterday there, as I
LOVE shorting GLD-nyse, which has a high probability of being
questionable at best, and a total fraud at worst)
18. Thanks
for Steamin' Lehman's reminder that the phrase "markets
can fall down longer than you can stay solvent" is
actually "markets can fall down longer than you can stay
solvent or SANE".
19. Remember
that 99% of institutional land failed to see the crisis
coming. They think rates will rise but not
skyrocket. I think
the controlled fall of the bond market will go out of control,
by design, but I have no idea when
that happens.
20. Agricultural
commodities tend to top out 4-5 months AFTER gold does. We're
at about the 4 month mark from the Oct period where gold bogged
down. Gold LEADS other commodities. It's hard
to know how institutional money managers would view an
intermediate decline in food prices.
21. Would
they think that rates don't need to be raised so much? Hard
to know, but remember that Ben Bernanke believes higher ASSET
prices and a lower DOLLAR is the key to creating economic
growth. If people are RICHER, or at least FEEL
RICHER, they will SPEND. The
cornerstone of his plan is higher stock market prices. That
puts on a theoretical limit on how much gold and commodities
are likely to fall.
22. The
Gman's sicko theory is that if people spend more, he gets more
taxes, so he can steal more and manage his debt payments. I'm
not so sure that is a solution as much as it is
crisis-extension and robbery. One thing for SURE is
that photocopied money used to print asset prices higher is not
wealth building.
23. The
Dow was about 12,000 at the 1999 peak. It is about
12,000 now. The purchasing power of the Dollar has
been mangled by oil,
food, medicine. The Dow
is back to breakeven against the dollar, but people are not at
breakeven in wealth who have held the Dow. They are
vastly poorer.
24. QE
has happened before. After world war 2 the greatest
bond bear market in history occurred. Investors booked
LOSSES every year for DECADES on bonds, rolling them over for
the higher rate bonds each year, and getting a tax loss. The
history of the ending, or attempted ending, or pretend ending,
of QE has historically been accompanied by a SIGNIFICANT
correction in the stock market against the dollar.
25. It
is hard to know how GOLD would act if the stock market began a
major correction. I wouldn't be too fast to GUESS on
that. A Dow correction of size is a dollar
rally of size against the Dow.
26. The
fact that the Dow has NOT corrected leaves the door open as to
whether QE is really ending. Maybe the institutions have
it all wrong. I don't think they have it all wrong,
but I think that few in the gold community understand the huge
opportunity at hand to book massive profits on USD paper
currency in gold money that is here right now...won't be here
forever.
27. Don't
guess about how much MORE you'll make on US dollars by selling
NONE now. Sell
dollars for gold in your PGENS. I'm
here in Miami for another day. I listened to the man
voted fund manager of the decade yesterday say that VOLATILITY
will be a growing theme of 2011 (I called it THE theme). He
also stated that "I DON'T KNOW" is going to be the
correct answer issued
by the best analysts in 2011 in regards to where markets are
going in a lot of cases.
28. The
worst traders are trying ever-harder to predict market
DIRECTION. I told you that my prediction for the
markets in 2011 was that I would be wrong much more often, and
the key to profiting would be understanding that reality. With
my accounts at new highs this week while my prediction that
gold takes out $1430 before $1315 was just proven WRONG, I
think I've done a good job.
29. For
the funds I manage, huge buy programs are in place on gold that
extend hundreds of dollars below current prices. I
have no idea if we go there. A monster rally for
gold will come. But from what price launching
pad? Will it be HERE?
30. It
could be. So you HAVE to have bought SOME gold items
into HERE. What if it bottoms at some point between
$1250-1300? Well, THAT is possible too. Because
the market is so out of control right now, all is possible. So
you need buy orders down to the $1250 level.
31. Here's
a look at the uptrend line GOLD that
is IN PLAY in the minds of major trend followers. We
don't want to be guessing about whether price comes down to
this trendline, nor what happens to PRICE if it broke it.
32. Just
as you look at a monthly chart before a daily, you want to
think about what gold IS before you think about where it is
going against other assets in relative valuation. Gold
is WEALTH and you want MORE WEALTH.
33. It's
a REAL and ongoing battle to fight the paper money wealth
valuation VAMPIRE. The banksters are laughing as
theY watch one pathetic Fudd and Fundster after another discuss
the loss of wealth on their gold, because paper money has
rallied against gold. No fudd mentions he has a
profit on paper money. There
is no loss of wealth, just a rally in the paper money asset,
but almost nobody understands, and they CLING to the paper
money asset like mommy's good little price chasing BABY,
instead of booking profit on it.
34. The
banksters want everyone in a continuous mindset of losing and
loss booking and price chasing. Paper money is surging
against assets like gold stocks. Book profit on
paper money. Celebrate your WIN. If
you don't have any paper money because you went all in on gold,
well, leave the paper money alone. Don't chase it
and certainly don't throw one asset in the garbage at a loss to
chase another one that is being LIQUIDATED by the
BANKSTERS. Don't buy what the banksters are selling,
or you won't like what happens to you. The banksters
are selling DOLLARS and buying GOLD. Join
them. Join the market WINNERS, both in mind and
action.
Grid
time. My next profit booking point on dollars comes
in just above gold $1300. Will I get those
profits? My next profit booking point on gold
bullion comes at $1322. Which profit booking cash
register will ring first, dollars or ounces? I don't
have the answer, but I know one of them is going to ring very
very soon, keeping the KACHINGO and WINNING vibe in play. Go
into the week-end as a profit booking winner! Let's
cheer for BOTH $1322 or $1302. Both are profit
booking points, one for dollars, one for gold. A
final question....Do you really want... LESS GOLD? Don't
wait till it costs $700 million to buy 50,000 ounces of gold to
be defined as RICH. Work on
your next ounce of wealth TODAY.
Thanks!
Cheers!
st
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